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Séminaire EDF R&D : Macroseismic intensity observations as input for validation of regional Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) estimates
21 06 2017 @ 15 h 30 min - 17 h 00 min
Paolo Bazzurro, Emilia Fiorini
Amphi 2 à EDF Lab.
South Eastern France is a region of low seismicity and the independent data available for validation of PSHA results on a site-specific basis is insufficient. In this work we present a statistical methodology to investigate whether PSHA estimates at a regional level are in agreement with empirical macroseismic intensity observations from past earthquakes. To test the robustness of the hazard estimates at the regional level we compare the likelihood of observing different levels of ground motion at any given site or group of sites in the study region, as predicted by a PSHA model, with the likelihood extracted from historical catalogs in the region. This likelihood is estimated here with the aid of spatially correlated random fields of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) generated for historical earthquakes that occurred in a given time span, and for simulated earthquakes consistent with the PSHA model that are stochastically generated for the same time span. The random fields for the set of simulated earthquakes are based on the characteristics of the events (e.g., their magnitude and epicenter/hypocenter/rupture location), while the random fields of the set of real earthquakes in addition consider the damage data, given in terms of Macroseismic Data Points.